tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post7437082056062256279..comments2023-11-22T05:26:44.399-05:00Comments on Crossing the Lines: Costing the City Branch LineSteve Stofkahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14825368520377993845noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-21624293416660773482015-07-10T22:05:06.103-04:002015-07-10T22:05:06.103-04:00My view on a light rail network emanating from the...My view on a light rail network emanating from the City Branch: https://goo.gl/maps/ep6XHCharliehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10373134905148540432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-25325104173243091822011-09-15T17:14:56.215-04:002011-09-15T17:14:56.215-04:00Ish 2: Most of the expense in subway tunneling and...Ish 2: Most of the expense in subway tunneling and subsequent maintenance occurs when you have to tunnel below the water table (a wet tunnel vs. a dry tunnel). Unless I'm greatly mistaken, and I don't know the engineering, the tunnel I'm proposing will be 90% dry (the only exception being possibly the 13th St. duckunder--where the lower street level feels precariously close to hitting the water table) which of course <i>also</i> decreases the upfront cost, especially when compared to a predominantly wet project e.g. the Navy Yard extension.Steve Stofkahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14825368520377993845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-50513780220390807012011-09-15T17:11:23.108-04:002011-09-15T17:11:23.108-04:00Ish 1: Like I said, the numbers can increase by a ...Ish 1: Like I said, the numbers can increase by a <i>lot</i> before the ROI is lost. Let us assume $500m/m over 1/4 a mile, then. That's about $120m for the total length of the tunnel, which we add to the other $50 million or so, and add about $30m contingency ($200m total). Over the 10k passengers annually we're budgeting for, that'd be $20k/pax, which is still a strong ROI--on a par with Norfolk's Tide, which was praised on opening day for its extraordinary cheapness even <i>after</i> projected costs inflated by a third.Steve Stofkahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14825368520377993845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-65028852574472633222011-09-14T21:47:29.123-04:002011-09-14T21:47:29.123-04:00That, and I don't think I could name five citi...That, and I don't think I could name five cities where subways cost $100 million per mile. (Madrid, Istanbul, and maybe Naples and Seoul).Alonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17267294744186811858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-64161117799436164012011-09-14T11:07:56.350-04:002011-09-14T11:07:56.350-04:00FYI, in 2008, the 1.5 mile Navy Yard was estimated...FYI, in 2008, the 1.5 mile Navy Yard was estimated at $370 million. Septa now estimates it at $500-$750 million (link below). Any reason to think your half-mile construction cost estimate isn't several times off?<br /><br />http://planphilly.com/if-subway-reach-navy-yard-septa-planner-says-people-will-need-live-thereDavid Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05162875284419946819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-6991827189083510102011-09-14T11:05:58.991-04:002011-09-14T11:05:58.991-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.David Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05162875284419946819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-15817593502663716582011-09-13T12:44:07.618-04:002011-09-13T12:44:07.618-04:00The projection is fairly optimistic. I think costs...The projection is fairly optimistic. I think costs can jack up to about half a billion before the ROI falters. <i>Not to say that's a good idea however.</i><br /><br />A debate can be had for whether this route is suitable for light or heavy rail. To my mind, the cost savings gained by reusing equipment and the ability to tie into the Broad Street system outweigh the advantages light rail offers. (I believe the light rail proposal, made in tandem with the Schuylkill Valley Metro proposal, ran from Broad via this alignment to Girard and thence up Girard to Parkside and eventually 52nd; its ridership projections were lower, in no small part due to the facts that it (a) failed to properly tie in to Center City and (b) was estimated ca. 2000, when the persistent underestimation of urban ridership (and overestimation of suburban ridership) was just being noticed. In any event, the SVM's failure precipitated a total collapse in long-term rail planning on SEPTA's part...<br /><br />Philadelphia2035 (the new city plan) has this alignment as part of its transportation plan, so it's clear the City recognizes its need and inexpensiveness. In my opinion, this is precisely the kind of quick-to-implement and cheap project SEPTA needs to stimulate the taste of new construction and service extensions.Steve Stofkahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14825368520377993845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-30882092966269555482011-09-12T00:11:23.331-04:002011-09-12T00:11:23.331-04:00Based on the assumption that a mile of subway cost...<i>Based on the assumption that a mile of subway costs $100 million</i><br /><br />Oh, how I wish it were true...Alonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17267294744186811858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-51981212568461890322011-09-09T15:01:50.465-04:002011-09-09T15:01:50.465-04:00I love this idea too... Again, any idea where SEPT...I love this idea too... Again, any idea where SEPTA stand on this relatively low-hanging fruit? It may not have the grandiosity of an El (or BSL) extension up the Blvd, but as mentioned before, the ROI is pretty high (utilizing pre-existing infrastructure, etc). I'd think building out a system with "smaller" projects might be better than 1 mammoth pie-in-the-sky project.<br /><br />Mike<br />(aka: MetalDeth81 on PhilaSpeaks)Mike Cahillhttp://mikecahill.menoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-25915760285476480982011-09-09T10:03:34.625-04:002011-09-09T10:03:34.625-04:00And Steve, why do you think this idea, which seems...And Steve, why do you think this idea, which seems to have so much going for it, get less play than other subway extensions (specifically the Navy Yard)? I mean, for chrissakes, not only would it accelerate development in Francisville and Brewerytown and provide much-needed transportation options to an under-served area, it would also serve Philly's major tourist attractions: the Parkway museums and the Zoo (via the Girard trolleys, or via some relatively inexpensive sprucing up of the .4 mile walk to the Zoo: which, quite frankly, I'd pay for by leasing/selling some of the property along that route to developers ). <br /><br />Getting tourists into the subway system would have a tremendous multiplier effect, greatly increasing the subway's visibility both for locals and tourists. This line would end, once and for all, the number of non-Philadelphians who are surprised that Philly even has a subway.<br /><br />All this for $100 million? An absolute steal.David Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05162875284419946819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3300947294999806492.post-66657487121003379852011-09-08T16:02:00.406-04:002011-09-08T16:02:00.406-04:00This seems incredibly cheap to me for a truly impr...This seems incredibly cheap to me for a truly impressive benefit with a tremendous potential ROI. A boy can dream.David Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05162875284419946819noreply@blogger.com